• David Axson


As organizations start to think about planning for 2021 it will be important to identify scenarios that could have a material impact on your business and could reasonably occur as long-term consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Examples to consider could include:

  • Work from home increases to almost 40% of the workforce with a commensurate reduction in local travel.

  • Videoconferencing becomes the norm, reducing business travel and expense by 30% and credit card volumes by 20%.

  • Gatherings of more than 50 people are not feasible until 2022.

  • Increased grocery sales and reduced dining out continue well after the pandemic ends.

  • Some elements of social distancing become the norm.

  • Contactless payment increases; cash usage is almost eliminated to reduce spreading risks; ATM networks disappear.

  • Large corporations significantly reduce their dependence upon China or other markets.

  • Stress-testing akin to that applied to financial institutions after the financial crisis is instituted across industry sectors where significant weaknesses were exposed.

  • Only 50% of lost oil demand reappears over the next five years.

  • New coronavirus strains emerge in two of the next five years with 80% of the impact of COVID-19.

To read more on this topic check out my article in FM magazine


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